Ocean2k scientific goals
These are Ocean2k's scientific goals and tasks for the short term future:
Build a metadatabase of publicly available, Ocean2k-relevant paleoproxy datasets and model simulations.
Selection by Ocean2k-relevant metadatabase criteria, from publicly-available and cited/published data sources to be completed and made available via internet: January 2012.
Create a review paper on synthesis of marine climate variations over the past 2000 years. To be submitted July 2012, in time to be useful for the IPCC AR5 WG1 report.
a. Placement of observed historical marine conditions into 2K context.
b. Synthesis of existing appropriate paleodata: robust features in mean variance and/or distribution; principal uncertainties.
c. Synthesis of existing appropriate climate model output: robust features in mean, variance and/or distribution; principal uncertainties.
a. Historical marine climate: principal large-scale oceanic patterns of variation.
b. Principal external and internal forcing mechanisms, with focus on those for which the 2K study interval should be especially illuminating.
c. Proxy observations: principal types, distribution, interpretation, uncertainties.
d. Model simulations: principal formulations, included physics/chemistry/biology, uncertainties.
e. Synthesis methods: structure/methodology, sensitivities, uncertainties.
a. Synthesis of paleodata availability; robust patterns observed in time, space, frequency, selected time intervals of interest.
b. Synthesis of model simulations and marine variables or diagnostics resolved in the paleodata.
- Possible focus topics (subject to results from Goal (A), metadatabase development):
- North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
- AMO-like activity
- LIA/MCA transition
a. Where/when/how is there agreement between models for and observations of marine climate over the past 2 millennia?
- Evaluation of agreement between models and observations as robust basis for interpretation and study of 2K mechanisms, given uncertainties.
b. Where/when/how is there disagreement between models for and observations of marine climate over the past 2 millennia?
- Evaluation of agreement between models and observations as robust basis for identifying fruitful areas for futher study, given uncertainties.
The goal is to work towards a synthesis of global paleodata and paleomodeling efforts (for contribution to the overall 2k synthesis product) with a view to addressing how ocean data/modeling 'fits' into the picture emerging from the more mature regional 2k syntheses?
Figure: The six ocean regions for the regional data analysis and synthesis performed by groups of volunteers.