Thresholds, tipping points and multiple equilibria in the Earth system

tippingpoints-ID-100271731This activity will synthesize the latest insights into the existence (or lack thereof) of multiple equilibria in components of the Earth system (such as ocean circulation, ice sheets, or marine and terrestrial ecosystems).

Using paleo-evidence, as well as (transient) climate modeling, the PAGES community will develop strategies to detect and diagnose state changes and to assess the risk of them happening in the future.


Ed Brook (Oregon State University, USA)
Paul Valdes (University of Bristol, UK)
Aixue Hu (NCAR, Boulder, USA)


Access the special issue of Past Global Changes Magazine, dedicated to "Tipping Points" (vol.24, no.1, 2016), here.

First workshop - November 2018

The IAs first workshop, organized in conjunction with AIMES, was held from 14-16 November 2018 in Hamburg, Germany. All details here.

tipping points wshop hamburg 18

Participants at the first Tipping Points Integrative Activity workshop, held in conjunction with AIMES, in Hamburg, Germany.





Balancing stones image credit: Courtesy of Stuart Miles at