CVAS scientific goals

The overarching goal of Phase 2 of CVAS is to examine climate variability in space and time, with the focus on Holocene decadal to millennial variability, and its implications for future climate evolution.

A special focus will be given to scaling as a means to compare paleo time series with observations and simulations.

One key finding from Phase 1 (2016-2019) was the difficulty in separating proxy error from climate variability. The time-scale dependency of the transfer function and error in many proxy recording and reconstruction processes means that they affect scaling estimates for proxy records.

cvas jigsaw

Image 1: A view of a single climate zone (Baie St. Paul, Quebec, Canada) showing several subsystems including wetlands, ocean (estuary) and atmosphere that are each highly variable over wide ranges of space - time scales. CVAS is trying to understand this climate puzzle.
Image: Shaun Lovejoy, 2015.

This has implications for not only the CVAS target of variability but also any quantitative use of paleoclimate records, a core theme of PAGES.

Thus, in Phase 2, we will further implement and continue the proxy modeling efforts of the DAPS working group.

In this context, the objectives of the multidisciplinary working group involving specialists of non-linear physics, climatologists and paleoclimatologists, are to:

1. Assess the time-scale dependent transfer functions from climate to the recorded proxy in order to implement and improve proxy system models building on and integrating the DAPS work.

2. Improve statistical and modeling tools for analyzing and comparing (paleoclimate) time series and spatial distributions and to bring these tools to other PAGES working groups.

3. Create a synthesis of the spatio-temporal structure of climate variability based on the PAGES 2k Network and TEMP12K databases: "the CLIMAP of temperature variability" and compare this to current model simulations (CMIP/PMIP).

4. Investigate the implication of the results for reconstruction and assimilation efforts and for constraining climate projections.

5. Advance our understanding of the physical mechanisms of scaling constrained by our empirical findings.

6. Explore the application of the CVAS concepts beyond climate variability, e.g. the possible interactions between 'physics' and 'life' at the centennial scale (with links to EcoRe3).