EPICA challenge - Posters 1 and 2 - 2005

Predicting CO2 over 800,000 years

Eds: C.Kull, Chappellaz J, Fischer H, Miller H, Stocker TF, Watson AJ & Wolff E

, 2005

The Vostok ice core showed that, over the last 420 kyr, Antarctic climate and concentrations of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) were tightly coupled. In particular, CO2 seemed to be confined between bounds of about 180 ppmv in glacial periods to 280 ppmv in interglacials.The Vostok data are telling us how the coupled Earth system behaves - now we have to understand why it behaves this way.

During 2004, The European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) published new Antarctic temperature and dust records extending back to 740 kyr. The early part of the record shows a changed behaviour, with much weaker but longer interglacials. Greenhouse gas data for this extended period will soon be available, and obvious questions arise: Will CO2 retain its interglacial bound in weak interglacials or will a new upper bound be seen? Is there any trend in average CO2 over 800 kyr?

This provides an unusual opportunity for modellers and others to predict what the data will look like in advance and to allow us to explore the underlying assumptions behind ideas and models. Several groups took up the EPICA challenge, using models, concepts and correlations, these posters summarise their predictions.

> PDF EPICA challenge poster 1 - 6.1 MB 

Authors: F. Joos, E. Monnin; S. Barker, H. Elderfield; B. Flower; P. K

> PDF EPICA challenge poster 2 - 10.3 MB

Authors: K. Matsumoto; E. Monnin, U. Siegenthaler, D. L

> PDF EPICA EOS announcement - 54 KB
(Reference: Wolff, E.W., J. Chappellaz, H. Fischer, C. Kull, H. Miller, T.F. Stocker, A.J. Watson, 2004, The EPICA challenge to the Earth System Modelling community. EOS, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union. 85,  363.)

> PDF EPICA EOS summary - 0.7 MB
(Reference: Wolff, E.W., C. Kull, J. Chappellaz, H. Fischer, H. Miller, T.F. Stocker, A.J. Watson, B. Flower, F. Joos, P. K, 2005, Modeling Past Atmospheric CO2: Results of a Challenge. EOS, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union. 86, 341.

Category: Posters & presentations